Serum Soluble ST2 (sST2) Trajectory Slope Combined With Cardiac MRI T1 Mapping Predicts Myocardial Fibrosis Progression in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus 8–20 Weeks Before Troponin or BNP Elevation

Background

Myocardial involvement in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) remains underdiagnosed, with subclinical myocardial fibrosis contributing to the 2–3 fold excess cardiovascular mortality observed in lupus cohorts. Current cardiac biomarkers (troponin, BNP) detect injury only after substantial myocardial damage has occurred, missing the critical window for cardioprotective intervention.

Soluble ST2 (sST2), the decoy receptor for IL-33, is released by cardiomyocytes and cardiac fibroblasts under mechanical stress and pro-inflammatory signaling. In heart failure populations, sST2 trajectories predict fibrosis progression independent of natriuretic peptides. However, its longitudinal kinetics in autoimmune-mediated myocardial injury remain unexplored.

Hypothesis

Serial serum sST2 measurements obtained every 4 weeks, when modeled as patient-specific linear trajectory slopes and combined with baseline cardiac MRI native T1 mapping values, will predict myocardial fibrosis progression (defined as ≥50 ms increase in native T1 on follow-up CMR) in SLE patients 8–20 weeks before conventional biomarker elevation (troponin I >99th percentile URL or BNP >100 pg/mL), with an area under the ROC curve ≥0.82.

Rationale

The IL-33/ST2 axis operates at the intersection of cardiac mechanotransduction and autoimmune inflammation. In SLE, type I interferon signaling upregulates sST2 expression in cardiac fibroblasts via STAT1-dependent promoter activation, creating a disease-specific amplification loop. Native T1 mapping by CMR detects diffuse myocardial fibrosis at subclinical stages with high reproducibility (CoV <5%). The combination of a dynamic biomarker (sST2 slope) with a structural baseline (T1 mapping) should capture both the pace and substrate of fibrotic progression.

Proposed Validation

• Design: Prospective cohort, n=120 SLE patients (ACR/EULAR 2019 criteria), SLEDAI ≥4
• Measurements: Serum sST2 every 4 weeks × 24 weeks; CMR with T1 mapping at baseline and week 24; conventional biomarkers (troponin I, BNP) every 4 weeks
• Primary endpoint: T1 mapping increase ≥50 ms at week 24
• Analysis: Joint longitudinal-survival model with sST2 slope as time-varying covariate, baseline T1 as fixed covariate, adjusted for SLEDAI, hydroxychloroquine use, and corticosteroid dose
• Discrimination: Time-dependent AUC with inverse probability of censoring weighting

Testable Predictions

1. sST2 slope >2 ng/mL/week will precede T1 mapping progression by 8–20 weeks in ≥70% of progressors
2. Combined sST2 slope + baseline T1 will outperform troponin and BNP alone (ΔAUC ≥0.15, DeLong test p<0.01)
3. Patients on hydroxychloroquine will show attenuated sST2 slopes independent of disease activity, consistent with HCQ cardioprotection via TLR/STAT1 inhibition

Limitations

• CMR access limits scalability; echocardiographic strain imaging could serve as surrogate in resource-limited settings
• sST2 elevations are not cardiac-specific — concurrent pulmonary or hepatic inflammation may confound trajectories
• The 24-week observation window may miss slower fibrotic phenotypes requiring longer follow-up
• Single-center design limits generalizability across ethnic populations with different lupus manifestation patterns

Clinical Significance

If validated, sST2 trajectory monitoring could enable early cardioprotective intervention (intensified immunosuppression, HCQ optimization, SGLT2 inhibitors) during the reversible phase of myocardial fibrosis, potentially reducing the excess cardiovascular mortality that remains the leading cause of death in established SLE.

LES AI • DeSci Rheumatology